Forex News

• AUD/USD hits session highs at 0.7070, although it remains near eight-week lows.
• Bright Trade Balance data from China has provided a moderate impulse to the Aussie.
• Markets show some relief as hostilities in the Middle East stop.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) posts moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, regaining some of the ground lost last week, although it remains at its lowest level in nearly two months. News that Israel and Iran halted hostilities has triggered a mild relief rally. At the same time, upbeat Chinese trade data has provided additional support for the Aussie, as China is Australia’s major trading partner.

Data released by the Chinese Government earlier on Tuesday showed that the Asian giant’s trade surplus rose to USD 105.43 billion in May, its highest level since January and well beyond market expectations of USD 92.1 billion. In April, China's trade surplus amounted to USD 84.82 billion.

China's exports bloom with the AI rush

In May, exports showed a 19.4% year-over-year (y-o-y) growth, following a 14.1% increase in April, also beating expectations of a 15% increment. Strong demand for chips, amid the sharp increase in AI investment, has been the main driver for May’s surplus, offsetting the negative impact of the energy shock on global demand.

Imports also accelerated, with a 27.4% year-on-year increase in May after 25.3% year-on-year growth in April, suggesting that domestic demand is picking up pace after months of sluggish consumer spending.

Meanwhile, news reporting a pause in the hostilities between Israel and Iran has triggered a moderate pullback in Oil prices, providing a mild risk-appetite. US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Tuesday that he might have a proposal for a peace agreement with Iran and showed optimism about an upcoming deal.

In the US, the strong macroeconomic figures released last week, namely Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report, have boosted expectations that the Fed will be able to hike interest rates in the second half of the year, if inflationary pressures remain high. In that sense, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, due on Wednesday, will be key to confirm the market's expectations and is likely to set the US Dollar's near-term direction.